Terror shift in J&K: Valley incident count more, Jammu region attacks bloodier, of higher impact

Of the 251 ‘terrorist-initiated’ incidents in J&K since 2021, 15 were in the three districts of Jammu region and 236 in the Valley. While the three Jammu districts saw 2, 10 and 3 incidents in 2021, 2022 and 2023 (until May 30) respectively, the Valley saw a significantly higher number of such incidents at 129, 100 and 7 in the corresponding period.

The Valley also recorded a higher number of civilian casualties (60 since 2021) while the Jammu region saw 15 civilian deaths in the corresponding period.

Despite the numbers pointing to more terror attacks and casualties in the Valley than in the Jammu region, the security establishment has taken note of a changing trend – attacks south of the Pir Panjal range (Jammu region) have been high-impact incidents that have ended up inflicting the maximum damage.

The latest such attack was on May 5 when five Army personnel were killed in a forested area in Rajouri. Two weeks earlier, on April 20, five soldiers were killed when their truck was ambushed in Poonch.

In August 2022, five soldiers were killed in a terror attack on a military camp in Rajouri, while in October 2021, terrorists had killed nine soldiers, including a JCO, in the forests between Bhata Durian and Dehra Ki Gali in two separate encounters.

There have been high-profile attacks on civilians too — on December 16, two civilians were killed in firing outside an Army camp in Rajouri; and on January 1-2, seven villagers were killed in an attack in the Upper Dangri area of the district.

A senior officer of the Army said the incidents and the data make it evident that terrorists infiltrate into the UT from the lower mountains of Poonch and Rajouri regions, perpetrate “visually grand” incidents in these areas and thereafter cross the Pir Panjal and establish themselves in the Valley.

“Terrorists seem to be crossing the mother ridge at the LoC into Rajouri and Poonch, carrying out attacks and further crossing the Pir Panjal and entering the Valley,” the officer told The Indian Express.

“Fewer but high-impact incidents, especially involving casualties of security personnel and civilians, give the terrorists the publicity they seek,” said an official in the security establishment, adding, “The areas to the south of the Pir Panjal range can be accessed through easier and all-weather infiltration routes. However, since the terrorists lack adequate logistics support in this region, the ones who are eventually chosen to infiltrate here are more hardened and target security forces and civilians.”

The attacks in Jammu tend to have a higher impact, the official said, because of the “routine nature of small-scale incidents in the Valley… As a result, at times, even fairly bigger incidents (in the Valley) fail to capture public attention which they would have if they had taken place to the south of the Pir Panjal”.

Sources said much of the ceasefire violations and subsequent terrorist infiltrations through the LoC adjoining the three districts of Jammu region have happened over the last five years. As Defence Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman had acknowledged this trend and said Pakistan was extending its “arc of terror” to areas south of the Pir Panjal.

Sources listed factors such as the presence of two main roads passing through this region – the Jammu-Srinagar highway and the old Mughal Road connecting Poonch in the Jammu region to Shopian in the Valley via the Pir Panjal Pass – and the lay of the land (characterised by forested hills of lower altitude) as reasons why these areas are increasingly being targeted by terrorists.

Data also showed that the local recruitment of terrorists in the UT has been reducing since 2020: 191 in 2020, 141 in 2021, 121 in 2022 and 7 so far this year. Of the total terrorists killed in the UT since 2020, 549 were locals while 86 were of foreign origin.

As many as 133 local recruits either surrendered or were arrested during this period, while the number stood at 17 for foreign terrorists in the corresponding period.

Data showed that 36 local terrorists and 71 foreign terrorists were present in the Valley in May 2023, and the numbers in the corresponding period in Jammu region stood at 13 local terrorists and two foreign terrorists.

The data show a big drop in ceasefire violations along the LoC – from 4,645 such incidents in 2020, to one last year and none so far this year.

Also Read

PM Modi US Visit Live Updates: PM Modi arrives in US on landmark state vi...

NY City ballerina to lead yoga day event in presence of Modi today

Govt withdraws controversial livestock bill

Odisha train tragedy: CBI questions junior engineer, seals house ahead of...

In January this year, Army chief General Manoj Pande said the ceasefire agreement reached between India and Pakistan in February 2021 was holding well along the LoC and western borders though cross-border support to terrorism and terror infrastructure remained an issue.