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Kham Khan Suan Hausing writes | Five terms for CM: How Neiphiu Rio-led NDPP-BJP beat anti-incumbency

Kham Khan Suan Hausing writes: At the heart is the resilience, leadership style and popular appeal of Rio. He perfected the art of stitching together social and political coalitions

Rio’s last tenure saw the splintering of Naga armed groups, which created multiple spoilers to the peace initiatives.

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The return of the Neiphiu Rio-led Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP)-BJP alliance to the 14th Nagaland Assembly with a comfortable majority was expected. Two of the alliance’s major opponents, the Naga People’s Front (NPF) and Congress, lacked a strong organisation and popular leaders. They did not have the political will and resources to match the NDPP-BJP. The en masse defection of 21 NPF MLAs to NDPP in April 2022 seemed to have cleared the decks for the Rio-led NDPP-BJP alliance.

While the BJP is likely to remain a key player in the coalition government, the NDPP has consolidated its position by occupying the space vacated by the NPF. The poll results are significant for four reasons: First, the election of two women for the first time — the Nagaland assembly never had a woman member despite Naga society being seen as “egalitarian”. Second, the polls underline the rise of the NDPP as a regional party. Third, Neiphiu Rio is set to equal S C Jamir’s record of assuming the CM’s post for the fifth time. He is also poised to eclipse the latter’s record of holding office for more than 15 years. These are no ordinary achievements for a regional party in a small state that is marked by a fluid bipolar, yet multiparty, electoral system where factionalism and defection are endemic. Fourth, the expansion of the BJP in a Christian-dominated state like Nagaland is significant. It has been made possible by the state’s fluid party system and should not necessarily be seen as a function of the wide acceptability of its ideology and cultural agenda.

At the heart of these possibilities is the resilience, leadership style and popular appeal of Rio. As a factional leader who began his political career in the youth wing of the United Democratic Front (UDF) and subsequently joined Congress, Rio perfected the art of stitching together social and political coalitions. He defected from the Congress in 2003, despite being the home minister, on the ground that the party created stumbling blocks to the Naga peace process. Riding on the popular wave of the appeal for the integration of all Naga-inhabited areas in the state, he joined the NPF in 2003 and immediately became the CM. The political strategy he adopted towards armed Naga nationalist groups and his proactive role in facilitating the peace negotiations/accord with the Centre — including the August 2015 framework agreement — ensured Rio’s popular support and electoral appeal across tribes.

Yet Rio’s last tenure saw the splintering of Naga armed groups, which created multiple spoilers to the peace initiatives. The negotiations have become more complex as the six armed Naga groups, who rallied under the banner of the Naga National Political Group (NNPG), are demanding “equal” negotiating power. It remains to be seen how well Rio manages to salvage the peace process after the departure of R N Ravi — the peace interlocutor and former governor — from the state.

Under Rio’s leadership, the NPF and subsequently NDPP were seen to adopt policies conducive to inclusive political participation and development. In his first stint as CM, Rio amended the state’s Municipality Act to give 33 per cent reservation to women. Although this was opposed by the Naga tribes and civil society groups, the Act opened up possibilities for breaking glass ceilings.

Rio also succeeded in creating wide networks of patron-client relations throughout the state. The contractor-businessman-politician linkages got strengthened thanks to his ability to harness developmental funds from the Centre. His cordial relationship with the BJP could well have been a liability. Like in the case of Hokishe Sema and Jamir who were seen as major figures in the consolidation of the Congress in the 1980s — a national party that is seen as not having an avowed commitment to the Naga cause — Rio is seen as facilitating the expansion of the BJP and Sangh Parivar in Nagaland. The expansive network and consolidation of the RSS and BJP have taken place under his tenure. The insecurity felt by sections of the Christian Nagas at Hindutva’s ghar wapasi appeal did put Rio under the scanner. But he seems to have carried the day, for now.

Some parties including the LJP and NCP, and independents — in fact even the BJP — sought to underline the shortcomings in Rio’s developmental agenda. The relatively better performance of these players in eastern Nagaland shows that issues related to bridging the “developmental deficit” have a powerful electoral appeal. In the past, Rio sought to address this by crafting an inclusive development architecture — the Department of Underdeveloped Areas (DUDA) in 2003, for instance — to cater to the developmental needs of the state’s seven “backward tribes,” Chang, Khiamniungan, Konyak, Phom, Sangtam, Tikhir and Yimkhung. Rio also tried to involve the Eastern Nagaland People’s Organisation (ENPO) — the apex organisation of the tribes — in critical decision-making bodies. However, these tribes have continued to rally under the NPO’s banner to demand a “frontier Nagaland state”. Their decision to boycott the elections was withdrawn following Union Home Minister Amit Shah’s reported promise to create an “autonomous territory” after the elections.

The BJP seems to sense an opportunity in the ENPO’s continued grievances — a point borne out by a series of development packages for the seven tribes in its election manifesto. It has also invested in making the party the main hinge of politics in Nagaland. The lotus symbol on an image of the Morung — a key institution of the Nagas — on the cover page of the BJP’s election manifesto with a large photograph of PM Modi pasted on it underlines the party’s desire to occupy a dominant position in the state. Whether the Nagas respond favourably to the party’s overtures, in the long run, remains to be seen.

The writer is professor and head, department of Political Science, University of Hyderabad