Months before presidential polls, crucial political developments in the Maldives

Cracks have formed within the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), with members divided in their support to President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih and to former president Mohamed Nasheed, who currently serves as the Speaker of the People’s Majlis.

In January this year, Solih won the party primary, defeating Nasheed, and will run for a second term in the September elections.

For months, the rift between Solih and Nasheed had been bubbling beneath the surface. But tensions soared when Nasheed, after the primaries loss, openly refused to back Solih and said he would suggest an alternative candidate. Taking the dispute one step further, Nasheed started coalition discussions with Jumhooree Party leader Qasim Ibrahim, although no official announcements have been made regarding a tie-up between Nasheed and the Jumhooree Party.

Simultaneously, several MDP members have refused to extend support to President Solih in the upcoming elections and some have also left the MDP.

The Opposition

In December last year, the Maldives criminal court sentenced former president Abdulla Yameen to 11 years in prison and fined him $5 million over corruption and money laundering charges. This became a major problem for the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), which had declared him its presidential candidate. Yameen has denied any wrongdoing.

However, this recent conviction of Abdulla Yameen in a money-laundering and corruption case is likely to disqualify him from the position of presidential candidate, explains Dr. Gulbin Sultana, a research analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, whose area of research includes the Maldives.

As of now, the PPM has refused to field another candidate and has resolved to appeal Yameen’s conviction before higher courts. If Yameen is acquitted in time to file his candidacy, it changes the game. “Things are very uncertain, but their main goal is to get Yameen freed,” Sultana told indianexpress.com.

What to expect

“Electoral alliances are very important in the Maldives. Since 2008, no party has won on their own. They need alliances to form a coalition government. That is why negotiations are ongoing, but it is too early to say what is going to happen because there are so many uncertainties,” said Sultana. “If you observe the presidential elections in the Maldives, it is always like that. Till the very end, you don’t have any clue about what is going to happen.”

The split within the MDP may work for the Opposition, some experts believe.

Impact on India

Prior to 2018, when the PPM was the ruling party, the favour extended to China by the Maldives under Yameen’s foreign policy was clear. When the Solih administration came to power, New Delhi got some respite from hostilities, and recovered some lost diplomatic ground.

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Should the MDP not manage to secure another term, it will raise concerns for New Delhi. In addition to diplomatic relations, there are several high-value India-backed projects underway in the country. New Delhi is also tackling anti-India sentiment, particularly over the last two to three years, which has been weaponised by the Opposition during the election campaign. “But there is an understanding that regardless of who comes to power, they will have to have some sort of working relationship with India,” said Sultana.