On climate change, wealthy nations must show the way

Reports of the southwest monsoon have brought bittersweet news for India with some analysts claiming it is subpar whilst the IMD predicts normal rains this year. Irregular rains have a bigger impact on the economy and market sentiment than deficient or delayed monsoons. This points to the increasingly negative role of climate change in creating variability in our weather systems. Floods, droughts, extreme rains and subsequent crop damage and health impacts today pose challenges like never before. The World Meteorological Organisation’s recent report on global temperatures touching 1.5 degrees Celsius in early June is a warning that the climate emergency is upon us.

The IPCC’s 2023 Climate Change Synthesis Report reiterates that our governments are just not doing enough to tackle the crisis. The current pace of remedial measures will see the global average temperature rise to 2.7 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels by 2100, and all the international net-zero targets put together would still warm the planet by 2.2 degrees Celsius.

An estimated two million people lost their lives between 1970 and 2019 to extreme weather and the economic loss hovers around $6.5 trillion. Proponents of conservative climate action could argue that mitigation of emissions must not erode jobs or hit industry. There is some truth in their argument. The uncertainties that come with change — in the manner we produce food, energy or goods and services — would be worse if people lost their livelihoods. But it’s also true that we need potable water, land and habitable temperatures above everything else. We are at an uncharted moment in history where the truth of this existential necessity must take precedence. A mere 10 per cent of the world’s richest countries emit 50 per cent of the greenhouse gases, while the poorest account for 12 per cent. Delaying climate action to even 2030 is likely to push temperatures beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius. If the major economies of the world want to lead, they will have to do so by making a long-term commitment to reducing emissions. The quantum of climate finance has grown only slightly over the past decade, reaching about $ 579 billion in 2017-18. This is about 10 times less than the estimated $ 6.3 trillion needed every year by 2030 to stay aligned with the Paris Agreement. The nearly $ 11 million in subsidies that the oil and gas industry benefits from delays the transition even more.

Many believe that climate impacts in 2100 will not be as dire as predicted, or that the current adaptation measures — with extreme weather events still arguably in their early stages — will be adequate to absorb the full force of the crisis. But let’s not forget that Covid-19 decimated businesses and revealed how under-prepared most countries were to deal with a mass emergency. Deadly as it was, the pandemic lasted only about three years. Climate change is likely to pose a much more severe challenge.

The good news, however, is that the solutions we have today can be scaled up a lot faster if backed by political will. Utility-scale solar is now officially the cheapest source of power in the major economies and a new solar plant is three times cheaper than its equivalent in coal. In 2022, 90 per cent of the world’s power sector growth came from renewables, and there was a staggering 45 per cent rise in capacity year-on-year. Twenty-four nations have reported a drop in emissions by expanding their renewables portfolio and the lower acquisition costs of solar and wind power have forced even the utilities in the US coal belt to switch over.

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The switch to clean energy need not spell doom for the oil and gas sector. With their expertise in energy technology and finance, the learning curve for the professionals to migrate to renewables would be considerably less daunting. The industry’s offshore capabilities are perfectly matched with the world’s offshore wind capacity, and they would do well to retail clean energy to the fast-growing battery electric vehicle ecosystem. By investing their subsidies in de-centralised solar, wind, geothermal and tidal power, the corporations could make themselves the primary energy provider for the developing world.

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Our governments must view the challenge as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to shake off our reliance on fossil fuels and build self-sufficient energy systems that are more cost-effective. The race to 2050 must not be about net-zero or carbon neutrality alone but towards zero life cycle emissions, because it is a matter of survival.

The writer is Director, Climate Trends