Express View on record-breaking temperatures: In the hot seat

Last month, the World Meteorological Organisation warned that temperatures in at least one of the next four years would be higher than the pre-industrial era average by 1.5 degree Celsius. Now, the EU’s Earth Observation Arm, Copernicus, has reported that this threshold was breached in the first week of June. There have been earlier instances when this limit set by the Paris Pact was exceeded. But this is the first time that global mean temperatures have exceeded the 1.5 degree Celsius figure during a summer month. This does not yet mean a point of no return from a climate change perspective. The Paris Agreement refers to global mean temperatures over a 20- or 30-year period. However, as the threshold set by the landmark pact is crossed more frequently, the cumulative effect of these increases is likely to be serious.

Scientists agree that a long-term breach of the 1.5 degree threshold could aggravate climate impacts, including heatwaves, floods and droughts — several such extreme weather events have had telling effects in recent years. Living with such weather vagaries would require paradigm shifts in areas as varied as agriculture, urban planning, and disaster warning and mitigation systems. According to a UN report released at the end of last year, most countries have climate adaptation plans in place, and “instruments are getting better at prioritising disadvantaged groups”. However, as the last IPCC report released in March underlined, “finances for adapting to climate change have been particularly low”. The UNEP estimates that $340 billion will be needed every year for climate adaptation, but less than $30 billion gets allocated for the purpose. Moreover, as an OECD assessment shows, 70 per cent of public climate finance is provided through loans where the funder expects a financial return. Interventions such as disaster warning systems or building flood defences do not generate revenue. The current financing structure, therefore, does not address the challenges of a large majority of climate-vulnerable countries, amongst the most resource-strapped. The culpability of these nations for global warming is negligible. Pakistan, for example — which contributes barely 1 per cent of the world’s GHG emissions — was set back by more than $30 billion after last year’s floods.

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On June 22 and 23, France will hold an international summit “aimed at taking stock of the ways and means of increasing financial solidarity with the Global South”. The decisions taken at the meet are likely to feed into the agenda of the COP 28 in Dubai later this year. The delegates will do well to factor in the challenges posed by the recent rise in temperatures.