The statement made by the Samajwadi Party (SP) president, Akhilesh Yadav, last Saturday that the Opposition parties committed to defeat the ruling BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls should show a “big heart” and support the SP in Uttar Pradesh seemed to have signalled that the SP is willing to join hands with the Congress provided that his party dominates the seat-sharing in UP.
A few weeks earlier, the SP had said it was not willing to contest the polls in an alliance with the Congress. The SP had even started preparations to field its candidate in Amethi, one of the few Congress bastions in UP, where it had not been fielding its candidate against the grand old party’s high-profile nominees like Rahul Gandhi in the past few parliamentary elections.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, however, Rahul was defeated in the seat by the BJP’s Smriti Irani.
Sources said the SP has been under pressure from its existing ally, the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), which is of the view that no anti-BJP front can be successful without the Congress. The RLD’s UP president Ramashish Rai said, “Ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Muslims in UP are looking towards the Congress. Hence, Congress should be in the Opposition’s front in UP. In western UP, a combination of Muslims, Jats and Gujjar is developing against BJP.”
Rai said Muslims account for 38-51 per cent voters and Jats 6-12 per cent voters in at least 22 Lok Sabha seats of western UP and that in a “changed scenario” the Congress can help the Opposition alliance against the BJP.
The Azad Samaj Party led by Chandra Shekhar Azad has also been working among Dalits and Muslims in western UP.
An SP leader, however, said, “Congress is confident that if the Opposition’s alliance comes to power, it will have maximum MPs from different states and that the Prime Minister will be from the Congress only. Hence, the Congress is not willing to make any compromises in seat-sharing with the SP in UP, where the two parties’ previous alliance had failed in the 2017 Assembly polls. But the Congress should remember that it could win only one Lok Sabha seat in UP in 2019.”
Another SP leader said, “Akhilesh Yadav with such remarks might be trying to consolidate anti-BJP votes in the SP’s favour. If other parties do not join the Opposition’s alliance under the SP’s leadership in UP, Yadav will have an opportunity to give a message that only the SP wanted to defeat BJP.”
UP Congress spokesperson Ashok Singh said, “Results of UP alone cannot lead to formation of the government at the Centre. The Congress is committed to defeat the BJP and form the next government under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi. Congress is preparing on all seats in UP. Akhilesh Yadav has to decide with which ideology he wants to stand up with in the Lok Sabha polls. Anyone who has to defeat the BJP should support the Congress.”
Akhilesh has asserted that the Opposition parties should rally behind that party in a state where it is considered to be the strongest against the BJP.
The SP camp has maintained that going by its current standing in the Assembly and the results in past elections the party has been in “strongest position” to fight the BJP in UP, where other leading non-BJP players include the BSP, Congress and RLD.
The RLD maintains that its alliance with the SP is continuing. “But nothing is certain about future. In several seats in western UP in the recent local body elections, the SP and the RLD’s candidates were contesting against each other,” said an RLD leader.
The BSP has already made it clear that it will not ally with any party in the 2024 elections. The Mayawati-led party had contested the 2019 Lok Sabha polls in UP in alliance with the SP and the RLD, which had set alarm bells ringing in the BJP camp. But the SP-BSP alliance could manage to win only 15 out of UP’s total 80 seats, with the BJP again sweeping the state that paved the way for its return to power at the Centre for the second consecutive term.
Mayawati has been consistently going after the SP now, appealing to the Muslim community to support her party. Recently, when Akhilesh came up with the “PDA” [Picchda (OBCs), Dalits and Alpsankhyak (minorities)] formula and said it could help the Opposition defeat the BJP-led NDA,
Mayawati tweeted to charge that the SP’s PDA was only a rhyme with the “Parivar, dal, alliance” (family, party and alliance)” as its “actual meaning”.
2.साथ ही, सपा द्वारा एनडीए के जवाब में पीडीए (पिछड़े, दलित, अल्पसंख्यक) का राग, इन वर्गों के अति कठिन समय में भी केवल तुकबन्दी के सिवाय और कुछ नहीं। इनके पीडीए का वास्तव में अर्थ परिवार, दल, एलाइन्स है जिस स्वार्थ में यह पार्टी सीमित है। इसीलिए इन वर्गों के लोग जरूर सावधान रहें।
— Mayawati (@Mayawati) June 19, 2023
Senior SP leader Sudhir Panwar said the socialist icon Rammanohar Lohia was against the “single party rule or double engine government”. “Lohia invited B R Ambedkar for an alliance but it could not materialise due to the sudden demise of Ambedkar. Because of his efforts coalition governments were formed in various states and at the Centre after 1967,” he said.
“Mulayam Singh Yadav and Kanshi Ram made an alliance in 1993 and defeated BJP when it was at its peak. Since 2017 Akhilesh Yadav has made alliances with Congress, BSP and smaller parties. In 2017 (Assembly polls) he made a coalition with Congress by giving it disproportionate seats to oppose BJP. And in 2019 (Lok Sabha polls) he entered into an alliance with Mayawati, giving more winnable seats to BSP. He took one step further by giving seats to RLD from his party’s quota when Mayawati refused alliance with Ajit Singh,” Panwar said.
He pointed out that the SP forged alliances with smaller parties for the 2022 Assembly polls to “fight for social justice” and also helped RLD chief Jayant Chaudhary get elected to the Rajya Sabha.
“Akhilesh Yadav has shown large heart in every alliance as the SP’s partners benefited more. His call for ‘large heart’ is significant because it is precondition of any political alliance,” Panwar said, adding it would be up to the Congress whether it would want to fight the BJP at the central level or take on the regional parties for its future prospects in states.