One year of Sena rebellion: For Eknath Shinde, keeping his Sena flock together remains a task

Even as Shinde managed to get the support of 39 Sena MLAs and 13 Lok Sabha MPs, it has not been able to get hold over Mumbai, which is considered to be a bastion of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Sena. Even a year after the rebellion, only a few Shakha Pramukhs and only 13 out of over 90 former Sena corporators have joined Shinde in Mumbai.

Though he is trying hard, sources say that Shinde is facing difficulty in swaying the loyalties of these shakhas and its members towards his party in the city as well as in other parts of the state, as most of them continue to remain loyal to the Thackerays.

According to political observers, even though the Shinde-led faction was recognised as the real Shiv Sena by the Election Commision and also alloted the party name and original symbol (bow and arrow), whether it has been accepted by the people of the state is still a question and can be ascertained only in the polls.

Political observers feel that the major challenge ahead of Shinde is to counter the narrative set by the Uddhav-led Sena that Shinde and his faction betrayed Bal Thackeray’s

Sena and to tackle the increased sympathy that the Uddav-led Sena garnered after the rebellion. This is apart from the attempt of party to reinforce the party’s status as the real Shiv Sena and the true inheritor of founder Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy.

“Except for some districts like Thane, there is no organisational structure of the Shinde-led Sena and the cadre base in the state. His major challenge is to erase the tag of traitors, a moniker he and other leaders associated with his faction have earned after the rebellion last year,” said political observer Hemant Desai.

Apart from the lack of a political organizational structure, the Shinde-led Sena also doesn’t have a brand or face who can win elections and Shinde is yet to emerge as a face of the party as Uddhav is of his faction.

“Shinde has few legislators in his party, who are strong in their respective constituencies and can win the elections there. But there is no face or a leader in the Shinde-led Sena with whose popularity the party can win elections in different constituencies of the state. In case of the Uddhav-led Sena, Uddhav Thackeray is a brand who can bag seats. Whatever little recognition the Shinde-led Sena is enjoying, it is only because they are in the government. But there is an organisational structure and cadre base which is needs to be tapped in,” said Sanjay Patil, who has done a PhD in Shiv Sena.

Patil also pointed out that the another challenge for Shinde would be to form stronger ties with the BJP, which would be the crucial task and without having a face of its own party there is a possibility that Shinde-Sena legislators may switch over to the BJP with the hope of getting some electoral benefit during the polls. “Hence, having a party face of its own party is important if Shinde has to keep his flock together,” said Patil.

Even though Shinde has managed to cause a vertical split in the Shiv Sena along with 39 MLAs, he is still walking on a tightrope as he has the uphill task of keeping the rebel MLAs together in the party, especially those who are unhappy for not being inducted into the cabinet.

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Several MLAs with Shinde-led Sena have been vocal about their wish and ambition of being ministers but the number of MLAs aspiring to be ministers is more than the number of vacant berths. It is also being claimed that there are chances that even if cabinet expansion is done, then it is difficult to accommodate all the MLAs who are aspiring for a cabinet berth.